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  1. #1
    Resident Atheist Dan's Avatar
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    Thumbs down crappy Africa hot today


  2. #2
    Elite Member blebs's Avatar
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    Only 104? Come on Dan, that just means drink more beer!
    Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces people into thinking they can't lose. -Bill Gates

  3. #3
    resident Humboldt's Avatar
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    I think it hit the mid 80's today

    Crazy day, we had our annual OysterFest at the plaza today (1 block away). Thousands of people, dozens of booths serving nothing but fried oysters, raw oysters, bbq oysters, etc...
    and lots of beer. Great festival but it all but annihilates sales for us.

    http://www.oysterfestival.net/

    Years since I went, had to work each time, but the parking lot we share w/ a Safeway and CVS was packed with fest-goers...fighting for parking, tail-gate drinking...the restaurant right next to us was bbqing oysters 20' from our door, 3 for $6.25 either chili or almond pesto or basil pesto. My mouth was watering for the first few hours but after smelling the charcoal all day I was about to puke.

  4. #4
    Elite Member blebs's Avatar
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    Were shooting for 90 today, but the humidity makes it feel like 100.
    Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces people into thinking they can't lose. -Bill Gates

  5. #5
    Resident Atheist Dan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humboldt View Post
    I think it hit the mid 80's today

    Crazy day, we had our annual OysterFest at the plaza today (1 block away). Thousands of people, dozens of booths serving nothing but fried oysters, raw oysters, bbq oysters, etc...
    and lots of beer. Great festival but it all but annihilates sales for us.

    http://www.oysterfestival.net/

    Years since I went, had to work each time, but the parking lot we share w/ a Safeway and CVS was packed with fest-goers...fighting for parking, tail-gate drinking...the restaurant right next to us was bbqing oysters 20' from our door, 3 for $6.25 either chili or almond pesto or basil pesto. My mouth was watering for the first few hours but after smelling the charcoal all day I was about to puke.

    that sounds like a fun festival,for me,you know I love oysters.

  6. #6
    Advanced Member SlyOneDoofy's Avatar
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    Whatever....my state was the only state not above average for this year.....you all s+ck with your sunshine.
    Global warming is a myth in WA State.
    Nutty like squirrel terds!!!

  7. #7
    Lush/Cult Leader Extraordinaire Mad_Haggis's Avatar
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    Climate change?

    Just asking?, worried about the beer?
    BEER

  8. #8
    Resident Atheist Dan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mad_Haggis View Post
    Climate change?

    Just asking?, worried about the beer?
    no,I'm not worried about the beer,but here is some great reading for you.

    "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate
    change impacts across natural systems
    Camille Parmesan* & Gary Yohe†
    * Integrative Biology, Patterson Laboratories 141, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA
    † John E. Andrus Professor of Economics, Wesleyan University, 238 Public Affairs Center, Middletown, Connecticut 06459, USA
    .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... ..................
    Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local,
    short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic
    trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a ‘systematic trend’. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than
    1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented
    significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean
    advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘sign-switching’
    responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data
    sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates ‘very high confidence’ (as laid down by
    the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1 (IPCC) assessed
    the extent to which recent observed changes in natural biological
    systems have been caused by climate change. This was a difficult task
    despite documented statistical correlations between changes in
    climate and biological changes2–5. With hindsight, the difficulties
    encountered by the IPCC can be attributed to the differences in
    approach between biologists and other disciplines, particularly
    economists. Studies in this area are, of necessity, correlational rather
    than experimental, and as a result, assignment of causation is
    inferential. This inference often comes from experimental studies
    of the effects of temperature and precipitation on the target species
    or on a related species with similar habitats. Confidence in this
    inferential process is subjective, and differs among disciplines, thus
    resulting in the first divergence of opinion within the IPCC.
    The second impasse came from differences in perspective on what
    constitutes an ‘important’ factor. Anyone would consider a currently
    strong driver to be important, but biologists also attach
    importance to forces that are currently weak but are likely to persist.
    In contrast, economic approaches tend to discount events that will
    occur in the future, assigning little weight to weak but persistent
    forces. Differences of opinion among disciplines can therefore stem
    naturally from whether the principal motivation is to assess the
    magnitude of immediate impacts or of long-term trajectories.Most
    field biologists are convinced that they are already seeing important
    biological impacts of climate change1–4,6–9; however, they have
    encountered difficulty in convincing other academic disciplines,
    policy-makers and the general public. Here, we seek to improve
    communication, provide common ground for discussion, and give
    a comprehensive summary of the evidence.
    How should a ‘climate fingerprint’ be defined? A straightforward
    view typical of an economist would be to conclude that climate
    change was important if it were principally responsible for a high
    proportion of current biotic changes. By this criterion a climate
    fingerprint appears weak. Most short-term local changes are not
    caused by climate change but by land-use change and by natural
    fluctuations in the abundance and distribution of species. This fact
    has been used by non-biologists to argue that climate change is of
    little importance to wild systems10. This approach, however, effectively
    ignores small, systematic trends that may become important
    in the longer term. Such underlying trends would be confounded
    (and often swamped) by strong forces such as habitat loss. Biologists
    have tended to concentrate on studies that minimize confounding
    factors, searching for trends in relatively undisturbed systems and
    then testing for significant associations with climate change. Economists
    have viewed this as biased (nonrandom exclusion of data)
    whereas biologists view this as reducing non-climatic noise. Thus,
    economists focus on total direct evidence and apply heavy time
    discounting; biologists apply a ‘quality control’ filter to available
    data, accept indirect (inferential) evidence and don’t apply time
    discounting.
    The test for a globally coherent climate fingerprint does not
    require that any single species show a climate change impact with
    100% certitude. Rather, it seeks some defined level of confidence in a
    climate change signal on a global scale. Adopting the IPCC ‘levels of
    confidence’11 and applying the economists’ view of a fingerprint, we
    would have “very high confidence” in a fingerprint if we estimated
    that more than 95% of observed changes were principally caused
    by climate change, “high confidence” between 95% and 67%,
    “medium confidence” between 33% and 67%, and “low confidence”
    below 33%. In contrast, the biologists’ confidence level comes from
    the statistical probability that global biotic trends would match
    climate change predictions purely by chance, coupled with supporting
    experimental results showing causal relationships between
    climate and particular biological traits.
    Here, we present quantitative estimates of the global biological
    impacts of climate change.We search for a climate fingerprint in the
    overall patterns, rather than critiquing each study individually.
    Using the biologists’ approach, we synthesize a suite of correlational
    studies on diverse taxa over many regions to ask whether natural
    systems, in general, have responded to recent climate change.
    Furthermore, we attempt a cross-fertilization by applying an
    economists’ measure—the estimated proportion of observed
    changes for which climate trends are the principal drivers—to
    data sets chosen using biologists’ criteria. We call this a ‘global
    coherence’ approach to the detection of climate change impacts.
    First, we explore a biologists’ confidence assessment with two
    types of analyses of observed change: statistical meta-analyses of
    effect size in restricted data sets and more comprehensive categorical
    analyses of the full literature. Second, we present a probabilistic
    model that considers three variables: proportion of observations
    matching climate change predictions, numbers of competing explanations
    for each of those observations, and confidence in causal
    articles

    depending on whether or not competing explanations exist; p then
    is the proportion of species that have no competing explanations.
    Competing (non-climatic) explanations can, therefore, be
    expected in {…12p†…n2n0 †} of the reported analyses. Finally, for
    any of the n 2 n0 climate-conforming species, let p indicate the
    probability, determined from previous empirical study, that climate
    change is the principal causal agent of a particular biological change
    (independent of p).
    These three variables, each varying from 0 to 1, are inputs to a
    binomial probability model whose output estimates the proportion
    of all species that are, in truth, being impacted by climate change. In
    practice, confounding factors can never be eliminated completely
    from observational studies; therefore, p would normally have a low
    value. Here, we consider only the conservative case where p ˆ 0;
    that is, we assume that non-climatic alternative explanations exist
    for every species. In the Supplementary Information, we present
    modelling schemes where p varies from 0 to 1.0.
    The importance of non-climatic explanations should decrease
    with increasing scale. Most local changes are idiosyncratic and
    consist of noise when scaled up; however, atmospheric carbon
    dioxide levels have risen nearly uniformly across the globe.
    Increased CO2 can directly cause earlier flowering38, as does
    increased temperature, making these effects difficult to separate.
    However, these two effects can be viewed as different aspects of
    global warming, legitimizing discussion of their joint impacts.
    The variable p reflects the extent to which previous study and
    experimentation provides clear mechanistic understanding of the
    links between climate variables and a species’ behaviour and
    ecology. To understand the importance of p, consider the case of
    the silver-spotted skipper butterfly (Hesperia comma) that has
    expanded its distribution close to its northern boundary in England
    over the past 20 years. Possible ecological explanations for this
    expansion are regional warming and changes in land use. Comparing
    the magnitudes and directions of these two factors suggests that
    climate change is more likely than land-use change to be the cause of
    expansion29. Deeper support was provided by previous empirical
    studies documenting strong thermal limitation. At the northern
    boundary, development of offspring was restricted to the hottest
    microclimates (south-facing chalk slopes). Range expansion
    coincided with colonization of non-southern slopes. Simulation
    models based solely on previously measured thermal tolerances
    (that is, without land-use change) closely matched the observed
    expansion of 16.4 km (model prediction 14.4 km)12. Thus, mechanistic
    understanding of the system generates a high estimate for p.
    Figure 1 shows relationships between the n0 /n proportions and
    the minimum value of p that would be required to sustain different
    degrees of confidence for p ˆ 0. For example, the medium confidence
    region shows minimum values of p that would be required
    across the displayed range of n0 /n proportions to guarantee that
    about half of the observed species impacts were in truth being driven
    principally by climate change. Claiming a climate fingerprint with
    high confidence would require high minimum values for p (.0.67)
    regardless of n0 /n.
    Applying the probabilistic model
    Using all of the data from Table 2 to parameterize the model,
    n0 ˆ 147 and n ˆ 770, making n0 /n ˆ 0.16 (16% of species changing
    opposite to climate change predictions). We now consider p.
    The extent to which climate change can be isolated as the predominant
    driving force is extremely variable among species and
    systems. Such attribution results from a subjective synthesis of
    experimental and observational research, often conducted well
    before and independently of any study of long-term trends. The
    species for which p is high are those with a history of basic biological
    research, especially where research has been conducted along several
    axes (controlled laboratory/greenhouse experiments, field manipulations
    and observations).
    Table 2 Summary statistics and synthetic analyses derived from Table 1
    Type of change Changed as predicted Changed opposite to prediction P-value
    .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .....................................................
    Phenological (N ˆ 484/(678)) 87% (n ˆ 423) 13% (n ˆ 61) ,0.1 £ 10212
    .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .....................................................
    Distributional changes
    At poleward/upper range boundaries 81% 19% –
    At equatorial/lower range boundaries 75% 25% –
    Community (abundance) changes
    Cold-adapted species 74% 26% –
    Warm-adapted species 91% 9% –
    N ˆ 460/(920) 81% (n ˆ 372) 19% (n ˆ 88) ,0.1 £ 10212
    .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .....................................................
    Meta-analyses
    Range-boundaries (N ˆ 99) 6.1 kmm21 per decade northward/upward shift* 0.013
    Phenologies (N ˆ 172) 2.3 days per decade advancement* ,0.05
    .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .....................................................
    Data points represent species, functional groups or biogeographic groups.N, number of statistically or biologically significant changes/(total number species with data reported for boundary, timing, or
    abundance processes). The no prediction category is not included here.
    *Bootstrap 95% confidence limits for mean range boundary change are 1.26, 10.87; for mean phenological shift the limits are 21.74, 23.23.
    articles
    gies
    across time periods or geographic regions were available for
    334 species, among which 84% showed a sign-switching diagnostic
    of climate change response (P , 0.1 £ 10212; Table 3).
    Community representation sign switching
    Community studies in regions of overlapping ‘polar’ and ‘temperate’
    species base their climate change attribution on differential responses
    of these two categories. Among marine fish and intertidal invertebrates
    (for example, snails, barnacles, anemones, copepods and
    limpets) off the Californian coast34,39 and in the North Atlantic35,40,
    lichens in the Netherlands36, foxes in Canada37 and birds in Great
    Britain16, polar species have tended to be stable or decline in
    abundance, whereas temperate species at the same site have increased
    in abundance and/or expanded their distributions. Analogous
    shifts are occurring even within the Arctic and Antarctic among
    penguins8, woody plants41 and vascular plants42. Similar patterns
    exist for lowland compared with highland birds in the tropics43.
    Most of these studies are local, with high variability of individual
    species’ population dynamics. Even so, 80% of changes in community
    representation are in accord with climate change predictions
    (Tables 2 and 3).
    Temporal sign switching
    Long-term studies encompass periods of climate cooling as well as
    warming. If the distributions of species are truly driven by climate
    trends, these species should show opposite responses to cooling and
    warming periods. Such sign switching has been documented in the
    United Kingdom for marine fish, limpets, barnacles and zooplankton40,
    in the United Kingdom and Estonia for birds20,31,44,45, and in
    the United Kingdom, Finland and Sweden for butterflies17,46–48 (see
    also Table 3 legend). A typical pattern includes northward range
    shifts during the two twentieth-century warming periods (1930–45
    and 1975–99), and southward shifts during the intervening cooling
    period (1950–70). No species showed opposing temporal trends
    (Table 3).
    Spatial sign switching
    Whole-range, continental-scale studies, by encompassing the
    extremes of a species’ distribution, allow testing for differential
    spatial impacts. In North America and Europe, detailed temporal
    data spanning the twentieth century were compiled for 36 butterfly
    species at both northern and southern range extremes17,49. Eight
    species (22%) exhibited a diagnostic pattern of northward expansion
    (new colonizations) and southern contraction (population
    extinctions). No species showed opposing range shift trends (northward
    contraction and southward expansion) (Table 3).
    Discussion
    The logic of a global focus on biological change is analogous to that
    for climate change itself.With climate change, attribution of recent
    warming trends to changes in atmospheric gases comes from
    analysis of global patterns, not from detailed data from individual
    meteorological stations. Similarly, when assessing biological
    Table 3 Biological fingerprint of climate change impacts
    Sign-switching pattern
    Percentage of species showing
    diagnostic pattern
    .................................................................................................... ........................................................................
    Community
    Abundance changes have gone
    in opposite directions for
    cold-adapted compared with warm-adapted
    species. Usually local, but
    many species in each
    category. Diverse taxa, n ˆ 282*.
    80%
    .................................................................................................... ........................................................................
    Temporal
    Advancement of timing of
    northward expansion in warm
    decades (1930s/40s and 1980s/90s);
    delay of timing or
    southward contraction in cool
    decades (1950s/60s), 30–132 years per species.
    Diverse taxa, n ˆ 44*.
    100%
    .................................................................................................... ........................................................................
    Spatial
    Species exhibit different responses
    at extremes of range
    boundary during a particular
    climate phase. Data are
    from substantial parts of
    both northern and southern
    range boundaries for each
    species. All species are
    northern hemisphere butterflies, n ˆ 8*.
    100%
    .................................................................................................... ........................................................................
    Differential sign-switching patterns diagnostic of climate change as the underlying driver.
    *Numbers of species represent minimum estimates, as not all species were described in sufficient
    detail in each study to classify. A few species showed two types of sign switching, and so are
    included in more than one cell. Data are from references in text and from raw data provided by
    L. Kaila, J. Kullberg, J. J. Lennon, N. Ryrholm, C. D. Thomas, J. A. Thomas and M. Warren.
    Figure 1 Probabilistic model based on parameter estimates from a review of the
    literature. Levels of confidence in the linkage of biological changes to global climate
    change are: high (dark grey), medium (mid-grey) and low (light grey). Confidence regions
    assume p ˆ 0 (competing explanations exist for all studies). The black line indicates the
    region of confidence possible using the probabilistic model on the basis of the parameter
    estimate of n0 /n from the literature review, and allowing p to vary freely.
    articles
    40 © 2003 Nature PublishingGroup NATURE |VOL 421 | 2 JANUARY 2003 |www.nature.com/nature
    impacts, the global pattern of change is far more important than any
    individual study.
    The approach of biologists selects study systems to minimize
    confounding factors and deduces a strong climate signal both from
    systematic trends across studies and from empirically derived links
    between climate and biological systems. This deduction is made
    even if climate explains only a small part of the observed biological
    change. The meta-analyses of 334 species and the global analyses of
    1,570 species (or functional/biogeographic groups) show highly
    significant, nonrandom patterns of change in accord with observed
    climate warming in the twentieth century, indicating a very high
    confidence (.95%) in a global climate change fingerprint (Table 2).
    The approach of economists takes a broader view. In its purest
    form, applied to all existing data and incorporating time discounting,
    this approach would conclude that climate change has little
    total impact on wild species. We argue that this approach misses
    biologically important phenomena. Here we hybridize the two
    approaches by applying an economists’ model to data that biologists
    would consider reasonable, and forego time discounting. A total of
    74–91% of species that have changed have done so in accord
    with climate change predictions (Table 2) giving an estimate of
    n0 /n ˆ 0.16 for the hybrid model. Assessment of p, the probability
    of correct attribution to climate, is subjective and relies on the level
    of confidence in inferential evidence. Such evidence comes from
    empirical analyses and experimental manipulations, which have
    documented the importance of climatic variables to the dynamics,
    distributions and behaviour of species3,5,8,9. From these studies,
    biologists infer that expected values of p are often high. We show
    that moderate values of p (0.35–0.70) are consistent with medium
    confidence in a global climate change fingerprint.
    The different approaches raise two distinct questions of the data
    and result in different levels of confidence in a climate change
    fingerprint. The questions are: (1) whether climate change can be
    shown to be an over-riding factor currently driving natural systems;
    and (2) whether there is sufficient evidence to implicate climate
    change as a common force impacting natural systems on a global
    scale. In an absolute sense, land-use change has probably been a
    stronger driver of twentieth century changes in wild plants and
    animals than has climate change (question 1). From a biological
    view, however, finding any significant climate signal amidst noisy
    biological data is unexpected in the absence of real climate drivers
    (question 2). Such small, persistent forces are inherently important
    in that they can alter species interactions, de-stabilize communities
    and drive major biome shifts.
    A review of the literature reveals that the patterns that are being
    documented in natural systems are surprisingly simple, despite the
    real and potential complexity of biotic change. Change in any
    individual species, taxon or geographic region may have a number
    of possible explanations, but the overall effects of most confounding
    factors decline with increasing numbers of species/systems studied.
    Similarly, uncertainty in climate attribution for any particular study
    does not prevent the development of a global conclusion on the
    basis of a cumulative synthesis. In particular, a clear pattern emerges
    of temporal and spatial sign switches in biotic trends uniquely
    predicted as responses to climate change. With 279 species (84%)
    showing predicted sign switches, this diagnostic indicator increases
    confidence in a climate change fingerprint from either viewpoint.
    The published IPCC conclusion stated high confidence
    (P . 0.67) in a climate signal across observed biotic and abiotic
    changes. Analyses presented here support that conclusion. Furthermore,
    a driver of small magnitude but consistent impact is important
    in that it systematically affects century-scale biological
    trajectories and ultimately the persistence of species. The climate
    fingerprint found here implicates climate change as an important
    driving force on natural systems. A
    Methods
    Climate change predictions
    Expected phenological shifts for regions experiencing warming trends are for earlier spring
    events (for example, migrant arrival times, peak flight date, budburst, nesting, egg-laying,
    and flowering) and for later autumn events (for example, leaf fall, migrant departure
    times, and hibernation)50,51. Response to climate warming predicts a preponderance of
    polward/upward shifts50,51. Dynamics at the range boundaries are expected to be more
    influenced by climate than are dynamics within the interior of a species range. Thus,
    community level studies of abundance changes are used best to infer range shifts when
    they are located at ecotones involving species having fundamentally different geographic
    ranges: higher compared with lower latitudes, or upper compared with lower altitudes.
    Response to climate warming predicts that southerly species should outperform northerly
    species at the same site50,51.
    Selection of studies for review
    This was not an exhaustive review. The studies listed in Table 1 comprise the bulk of wild
    species studied with respect to climate change hypotheses. Selection of papers was aimed at
    those with one or more of the following attributes: long temporal span (.20 years), data
    covering a large geographic region, and/or data gathered in an unbiased manner for a
    multi-species assemblage (typically species abundance data of locally well-documented
    communities). We excluded several high-quality studies of single species performed at
    local scale or highly confounded by non-climatic global change factors. The stable
    category represents species for which any observed changes are indistinguishable from
    year to year fluctuations, either from a statistical test for trend using very long time series
    data or from comparing net long-term movement to expected yearly variation on the basis
    of basic biological knowledge of dispersal/colonization abilities.
    Meta-analyses
    To create databases, studies were combined that made similar types of measurements and
    that reported quantitative estimates of change over a specified time period. All species
    were used; that is, even species that are categorized as stable in Table 1 were included in the
    meta-analysis. We treated phenological and distributional changes separately. To
    minimize positive publishing bias, only multi-species studies were included.
    We considered each species as an independent data point, rather than each study. Only
    data reported in terms of change per individual species were included. This precluded use
    of studies that only report mean change across a set of species.
    We used only distributional studies at range boundaries. We excluded equatorial and
    lower elevational boundaries because of a paucity of data combined with theoretical
    reasons for treating these boundaries separately from poleward/upper elevational
    boundaries52. Three studies met the criteria for data detail, covering 9 alpine herbs18,19, 59
    birds16 and 31 butterflies17. The geographic locations of these boundaries were nonoverlapping,
    reducing the likelihood of correlated confounding variables. Altitude was
    converted to latitudinal equivalent (for temperature clines, 1 km northward ˆ 1m
    upward). The United Kingdom bird data compared mean northern boundary in 1999 to
    that in 1972 using the ten northernmost occupied grid cells (on 10 km2 grids) from
    published atlases. The Swedish butterfly data compared mean northern boundary in the
    period 1971–97 to mean northern boundary in 1900–20 using the five northernmost
    records per year. The Swiss herb data showed changes in species assemblages over the
    twentieth century in fixed plots up altitudinal gradients on 26 mountains.
    The effect size per species was the absolute magnitude of range boundary shift,
    standardized across species to be in units of kmm21 per decade, with northward/upslope
    shifts positive and southward/downslope shifts negative. Data were not skewed, and n was
    large. Therefore, a one-sample t-test was used to evaluate the null hypothesis of no overall
    trends (that is, Hø: mean boundary change across all species is zero). Variances were not
    available for all species, so we used an unweighted analysis. We performed an additional
    bootstrap analysis of 95% confidence limits on the mean boundary shift (10,000
    iterations)53.
    The phenological meta-analysis was on spring timing events—there were insufficient
    studies on autumn phenology to warrant analysis. Nine studies published magnitudes of
    shift over a given time period (17–61 years). They included 11 trees20,23–25, 6 shrubs20,21,23–25,
    85 herbs20–23, 35 butterflies26, 21 birds21, 12 amphibians27,28 and 2 fish20. This data set was
    inappropriate for the t-test owing to skew, but bootstrapped confidence limits provided an
    estimate of the probability that the true mean shift includes zero.
    For both analyses, geography and taxa are confounded. For the range boundary
    analysis, all bird data are from the United Kingdom, all butterfly data from Sweden, and all
    herb data from Switzerland. For the phenological analysis, most shrub and bird data are
    from the United States, butterfly data from Great Britain, and trees from Europe.
    Therefore, it is not meaningful to split the analyses further.
    Categorical analyses
    Reported data from all studies listed in Tables 1 and 3 were included in the categorical
    analyses. The predicted direction is a change predicted by global warming scenarios50,51. All
    studies were conducted in temperate Northern Hemisphere, except for 194 species in
    Costa Rica43 and 5 species in Antarctica8,42. Two categories showing changes either
    predicted by or opposite to predictions of climate change theory were tested against the
    random expectation of an equal probability of observing changes in either direction.
    Analyses were by binomial test with Hø: P ˆ 0.5.
    Received 5 March; accepted 22 October 2002; doi:10.1038/nature01286.
    1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: Impacts,
    Adaptation, and Vulnerability (edsMcCarthy, J. J., Canziani,O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J. &White,
    K. S.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2001).
    articles
    NATURE |VOL 421 | 2 JANUARY 2003 | www.nature.com/nature © 2003 Nature PublishingGroup 41
    2. Easterling, D. R. et al. Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289, 2068–2074
    (2000).
    3. Parmesan, C., Root, T. L. & Willig, M. Impacts of extreme weather and climate on terrestrial biota.
    Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 81, 443–450 (2000).
    4. Pounds, J. A. Climate and amphibian declines. Nature 410, 639–640 (2001).
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    Acknowledgements This paper was stimulated by discussion during meetings of the
    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, particularly with Q. K. Ahmad, N. Leary,
    R. Leemans, R. Moss, J. Price, T. L. Root, C. Rosenzweig, S. Schneider, R. Tol, F. Toth and
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    R. Plowes, J. A. Pounds, R. Sagarin,M. C. Singer and B.Wee.Writing was facilitated by the Centre
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    United States through its support of the Center for Integrated Assessment of the Human
    Dimensions of Global Change at Carnegie Mellon University.
    Competing interests statement The authors declare that they have no competing financial
    interests.
    Correspondence and requests for materials should be addressed to C.P.
    (e-mail: parmesan@mail.utexas.edu).
    articles
    42 © 2003 Nature PublishingGroup NATURE |VOL 421 | 2 JANUARY 2003 |www.nature.com/nature
    "

  9. #9
    Moderator YeOldeStonecat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    no,I'm not worried about the beer,but here is some great reading for you.
    LMAO...fight gibberish with gibberish!

    The heat wave is descending upon New England starting today...the old "Triple H"...Hazy, Hot, 'n Humid.

    Upper 90's in the forecast for us over the next 3 days. Will feel a lot hotter for us since we're not acclimated to that.
    Me nuts will be hanging low on the Harley when sittin at stoplights.
    MORNING WOOD Lumber Company
    Guinness for Strength!!!

  10. #10
    Elite Member blebs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SlyOneDoofy View Post
    Whatever....my state was the only state not above average for this year.....you all s+ck with your sunshine.
    Global warming is a myth in WA State.
    Global Warming is a myth period.

    Were going to reach for 94 today. I'm sure if this continues, we may actually see 100 before the middle of July. Were 4 inches below normal in the rain department.
    Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces people into thinking they can't lose. -Bill Gates

  11. #11
    SG Enthusiast Leatherneck's Avatar
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    My alternator crapped on my work truck today and I was stuck on the side of the road 50 miles from the shop for an hour waiting for the tow truck. Of course it was 96. My Boss says, "At least there's a breeze." Yeah, there's a breeze in my convection oven too!
    USMC RETIRED

    Tacoma Guitar Forum

  12. #12
    Advanced Member SlyOneDoofy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by blebs View Post
    Global Warming is a myth period.

    Were going to reach for 94 today. I'm sure if this continues, we may actually see 100 before the middle of July. Were 4 inches below normal in the rain department.
    http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20...of-a-year?lite

    The map shows my state being the only one that doesn't get good weather, lol.
    Nutty like squirrel terds!!!

  13. #13
    Elite Member blebs's Avatar
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    The funny thing is, it can be like this, this year, then next year, it could be the exact opposite.

    My friend was offered a job at Boeing in WA and turned it down due to the weather.
    Success is a lousy teacher. It seduces people into thinking they can't lose. -Bill Gates

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